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5 Top Handicapping Angles
1. Class Wins Races
“Class wins races” is a mantra I’ve heard time and again. But what exactly is class?
My dad explained it perfectly to me back in the ’80s. He said, “Son, I’m in decent shape, and I can run pretty fast. But if I were to race Jerry Rice, even if his knees were bothering him or he wasn’t at 100%, he would still beat me because I’m not in his class.” That made perfect sense!
In horse racing, class is similar. Horses that compete well at higher levels are in a different league than those running in lower-tier races, like claiming events. For example, graded stakes runners are typically in a different class than allowance runners. You can usually gauge a horse’s class by its earnings—the higher the earnings, the better the class, in most cases.
Classes | Level | Specifics |
---|---|---|
Maiden | Non-winners | For horses that have never won a race. |
Claiming | Lowest | All horses are for sale. |
Allowance | Step up from claiming races | Horses are assigned a weight to carry or allowed to carry less weight. |
Stakes | Highest | Top horses and biggest purses. |
Here’s a basic breakdown of class levels:
Maiden: For horses that have never won a race.
Claiming: The lowest level; all horses are for sale.
Allowance: A step up from claiming; horses carry assigned weights or are allowed to carry less.
Stakes: The highest level with the top horses and biggest purses.
Each of these categories has its own subdivisions. For example, in maiden races, you have Maiden Special Weight (MSW) for horses not for sale and Maiden Claiming (MCL) for horses that are. A drop from MSW to MCL is often considered the biggest drop in racing.
Claiming races also have different levels, determined by the claiming price (the price at which a horse can be purchased). If a horse runs in a claiming race, it can be bought for the claiming price, and the owner can’t refuse.
Allowance and stakes races also have varying levels—there’s a lot to consider when it comes to class!
2. Bet with the Track Bias
Some of our biggest wins have come when we’ve identified a strong track bias. Whether the track favors front-runners or closers, knowing which way it’s leaning can make all the difference.
One reason we don’t finalize our picks until after the races from the previous day is to see how the track is playing. It’s no coincidence when all the early leaders hold on to win, or when none of them do—it’s all about track bias.
I watch every race at my tracks every day to stay on top of this. If you missed the previous day’s races, you can always check the racing charts to spot a bias.
3. Trainer/Jockey Stats
Numbers don’t lie. We consider a win percentage over 20% good, and over 30% great. For example, I just watched the 8th race at Saratoga. Our top pick, Forth Worth, was coming off a year-and-three-month layoff—a red flag for many—but his trainer, Todd Pletcher, wins 30% of the time with horses off a layoff. Sure enough, Forth Worth won easily.
On the flip side, some trainers’ stats are poor, especially under specific conditions. Anything below 10% is getting into the “suck zone.” For instance, some top trainers might win less than 5% of the time with first-time starters or horses off a layoff. Don’t be afraid to toss them out just because of their reputation.
I won’t name names, but looking at Ellis today, there’s a trainer with a 0.05 win percentage from 43 starts in claiming races, a 0.06 win percentage from 50 sprint starters, and currently 0 for 22 on the year—just put a big red X through that one. Eliminating obvious throwouts is half the battle.
4. The Lone Speed Is Always Dangerous
It doesn’t matter the distance, conditions, or track surface—lone speed is always dangerous.
If you spot a horse likely to get an uncontested lead, give it extra consideration. Even if the track favors closers, a smart rider on lone speed can stay in front but avoid the dead rail. We might even create a tutorial on how to handicap for speed—stay tuned!
5. Bet the 4-Year-Olds Over the 3-Year-Olds for the First 6 Months of the Year
Why does this work? Every horse turns a year older on January 1st, regardless of their actual birth date. By March, tracks start writing races for three-year-olds and up. The difference in maturity between a 4-year-old and a 3-year-old is dramatic, especially early in the year.
Last year, this angle was especially profitable. If I said we cashed 90% of the time with this strategy, I wouldn’t be exaggerating. Think about it—when the Kentucky Derby winner runs back in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, everyone makes a big deal about him “taking on older horses for the first time.” And that’s in November! Now imagine the advantage a 4-year-old has in March, April, May, and June!