Picks Gulfstream Park
Friday, September 30, 2022
Churchill Downs
I Play Exacta Boxes
In races with 3 Churchill Downs Selections the total cost will be $6 for a $1 bet In races with 4 Churchill Downs Selections the total cost will be $12 for a $1 bet
The Win Candidates are in order from our top pick to our fourth (or third).
However, we root for the two biggest prices to run 1st and 2nd as it helps our payoffs in our exacta boxes. It does not matter to me if it is our top pick or our fourth- I am trying to make money!
If you have any questions just let me know,
Tom – [email protected]
STAR RATING KEY:
= GREAT BETTING RACE = GOOD BETTING RACE = BAD BETTING RACE
Race 1
Post: 12:45 PM ET Dirt
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | MAIDEN CLAIMING: $30,000 | Purse: $50,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (1-2-3) Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
- 1 5 ML 6-1 Open Says Me A. Beschizza 124 Lbs B. Williamson $30,000 L
- 1A 7 ML 6-1 Tian’ai Road J. Riquelme 121 Lbs B. Williamson $30,000 L
- 2 1 ML 7-2 Backstreet Affair M. Murrill 121 Lbs G. Foley $30,000 L
- 3 2 ML 3-1 Candy Kick B. Hernandez, Jr. 121 Lbs C. DeVaux $30,000 L
- 4 3 ML 5-2 Landed Gentry T. Gaffalione 121 Lbs R. Medina $30,000 L
- 5 4 ML 6-1 Our Lady Nelson I. Wiseman 121 Lbs K. Fletcher $30,000 L
- 6 6 ML 7-2 Junellia F. Arrieta 121 Lbs C. Hartman $30,000 L
Churchill Downs Selections 6-3-4-2 Star Rating
#6 Junellia-drops from MSW to MCL for trainer Hartman who is hitting at 23% with his runners making this drop. She switches off the turf to the dirt, a 28% winning move for Chris and should be close from the start.
#3 Candy Kick-is another dropping from MSW to MCL this one for trainer DeVaux. She is also switching off the turf to the dirt which is a big 29% winning move for trainer.
#4 Landed Gentry-missed by 5 lengths while taking on 50k maidens over this track 2 weeks ago after a slow start. Trainer adds blinkers, she gets a rider upgrade to Gaffalione and drops a notch to 30k.
#2 Backstreet Affair-California invader switches to the Foley barn and drops a notch in class.
Race 2
Post: 1:14 PM ET Dirt
7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds | CLAIMING: $50,000 | Purse: $60,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
- 1 1 ML 4-1 Malibu S S E. Morales 118 Lbs T. Amoss $50,000 L
- 2 2 ML 12-1 Doctor Nash J. Rocco, Jr. 118 Lbs M. Tomlinson $50,000 L
- 3 3 ML 5-2 Prayforpeace D. Cohen 118 Lbs M. Simms, Jr. $50,000 L
- 4 4 ML 8-1 Waita Minute Hayes C. Hernandez 118 Lbs R. Courville $50,000 L
- 5 5 ML 9-2 Blue Kentucky J. Graham 118 Lbs J. Barkley $50,000 L
- 6 6 ML 2-1 Zippin Gigi B. Hernandez, Jr. 118 Lbs P. McGee $50,000 L
- 7 7 ML 15-1 Ready Pursuit T. Canuto 120 Lbs J. Antonuik $50,000 L
Churchill Downs Selections 3-6-5 Rating
#3 Prayforpeace-likes this track winning 2 of 5 with 2 thirds. He drops down to 50k after taking on tougher and the last time he raced at this level he drew off to win by 4 over this track.
#6 Zippin Gigi-came off a 3 month layoff last out and showed speed from the #11 post before tiring late and missing by 7 while taking on tougher allowance runners. He drops down to 50k, needed his last race and will be on or very close to the early lead.
#5 Blue Kentucky-finished just a length and a half behind our second pick and then 4 lengths behind our top pick and should be close again today.
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 3
Post: 1:43 PM ET Dirt
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE | Purse: $127,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (3-4-5) Pick 4 (Races 3-4-5-6)
- 1 1 ML 8-5 Dr. Perry T. Gaffalione 118 Lbs S. Asmussen L
- 2 2 ML 2-1 Air Combat R. Santana, Jr. 118 Lbs J. Ortiz L
- 3 3 ML 6-1 You Vee Cee D. Cohen 121 Lbs C. Deville L
- 4 4 ML 3-1 Seal Beach G. Corrales 118 Lbs M. Maker L
- 5 5 ML 20-1 New Year’s Fever E. Morales 118 Lbs B. Steele L
- 6 6 ML 6-1 Trashtalkinyankee F. Geroux 121 Lbs T. Van Berg L
Churchill Downs Selections 1-2-4 Star Rating
#1 Dr. Perry– came off a 10 month layoff last out and missed by only 4 lengths while running on a dead rail at Ellis Park. He needed that one and this track has been playing towards speed.
#2 Air Combat-went wire to wire from the #10 post two back to break his maiden then fought for the lead while stretching out to a mile last out before missing by only 2. He cuts back in distance and is the one to beat.
#4 Seal Beach-has a win and three seconds from his four starts over this track and looks for another in the money finish today.
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 4
Post: 2:13 PM ET Dirt
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up | CLAIMING: $10,000 | Purse: $31,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (4-5-6) $.20 Derby City-6
- 1 1 ML 9-2 Sis Boom Bob R. Miranda 120 Lbs R. Gonzalez $10,000 L
- 2 2 ML 8-1 Green Bananas J. Leparoux 118 Lbs S. Manley $10,000 L
- 3 3 ML 20-1 Sweet Ginger B. Bays 111 Lbs D. Hancock $10,000 L
- 4 4 ML 7-2 Sweet Annabella J. Rocco, Jr. 118 Lbs M. Tomlinson $10,000 L
- 5 5 ML 5-1 Eclipsed F. Arrieta 118 Lbs K. Fletcher $10,000 L
- 6 6 ML 8-1 Pappysaysyes R. Diaz 113 Lbs W. Catalano $10,000 L
- 7 7 ML 4-1 Louella Street E. Morales 118 Lbs J. Blair $10,000 L
- 8 8 ML 3-1 Forever Home A. Beschizza 121 Lbs B. Williamson $10,000 L
Churchill Downs Selections 4-8-5-7 Star Rating
#4 Sweet Annabella- did not run a step last out for 25k while getting beat 27 lengths. She drops down to 10k, shows a good work since his last race and looks to rebound.
#8 Forever Home-is another dropping in class this one from 30k to 10k and is the one to beat.
#5 Elipsed-pressed the pace and missed by only 5 at this same level last out while breaking from the #10 post over this track. She will be close from the start again today and should be in the payoffs.
#7 Louella Street– showed speed last out at Gulfstream against 20k claimers. She drops a notch to 10k and that will help her chances.
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 5
Post: 2:45 PM ET Dirt
6 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (5-6-7) / Pick 5 (5-9)
- 1 1 ML 4-1 Malibu Toast F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox
- 2 2 ML 7-2 Black Forest M. Garcia 119 Lbs F. Gutierrez
- 3 3 ML 8-1 Rocket City T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs S. Asmussen
- 4 4 ML 20-1 Optimizme C. Villasana 119 Lbs M. Pinzon
- 5 5 ML 9-2 Valiant Praise C. Lanerie 119 Lbs K. McPeek
- 6 6 ML 3-1 Nomadic Pride E. Morales 119 Lbs T. Amoss
- 7 7 ML 15-1 Rye Munny R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs I. Wilkes
- 8 8 ML 9-2 Tell Me When G. Corrales 119 Lbs T. Hamm
Churchill Downs Selections 6-8-2-1 Star Rating
#6 Nomadic Pride-325k first timer from the Amoss barn is coming off a bullet work over the track and looks ready for her debut.
#8 Tell Me When-finished second in back to back to begin her career then stopping while trying the turf last out at Saratoga. She is back on the dirt and that will help her chances.
#2 Black Forest-has finished second in all three of her starts to begin her career and will show speed from the inside.
#1 Malibu Toast– 200k first timer from the Cox barn is working well and Brad is hitting at a big 31% here.
Handicapping
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 6
Post: 3:18 PM ET Dirt
1 1/8 Miles | Open 7| 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING: $80,000 | Purse: $134,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (6-7-8) Pick 4 (6-7-8-9)
- 1 1 ML 6-1 Major General R. Santana, Jr. 118 Lbs R. Brisset L
- 2 2 ML 3-1 Digital C. Lanerie 122 Lbs R. Hiles $80,000 L
- 3 3 ML 8-1 Palazzi A. Beschizza 122 Lbs M. Casse L
- 4 4 ML 4-1 Claytnthelionheart J. Leparoux 122 Lbs P. Bauer L
- 5 5 ML 4-1 Roderick T. Gaffalione 122 Lbs M. Maker L
- 6 6 ML 5-1 Peekacho B. Hernandez, Jr. 122 Lbs D. Vance $80,000 L
- 7 7 ML 7-2 Eleven Central G. Corrales 122 Lbs P. Lobo L
Churchill Downs Selections 1-2-5-7 Star Rating
#1 Major General-420k gelding started his career with two straight wins including winning a grade 3 in his first start here. He took on graded stakes company in four straight then tried the turf in a 200k stake and missed by 7 before not firing last out in a 300k stake. He drops in class today, likes this track and should be a good price for 25% winning trainer.
#2 Digital-got the score over this track two back then closed to miss by only 5 at this same level last out going a mile. He gets more ground today and is the one to beat.
#5 Roderick-fast 550k gelding is coming off a win at Saratoga while being claimed for 50k. He shows a bullet work since and steps up in class- a positive sign.
#7 Eleven Central-has been in the money in 4 of his 5 career starts and should be close from the start.
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 7
Post: 3:50 PM ET Dirt
6 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $120,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (7-8-9)
- 1 1 ML 10-1 Gavinera B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek
- 2 2 ML 8-1 American Odalisque A. Achard 119 Lbs C. Caramori
- 3 3 ML 15-1 Stellar Lily R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs R. Moquett
- 4 4 ML 3-1 Justifying T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs S. Asmussen
- 5 5 ML 12-1 Take Shape C. Landeros 119 Lbs G. Arnold, II
- 6 6 ML 10-1 Miss Quest R. Bejarano 119 Lbs W. Morey
- 7 7 ML 5-1 Saucy Secret J. Rocco, Jr. 119 Lbs S. Hobby
- 8 8 ML 7-2 Two Minute Drill F. Arrieta 119 Lbs J. Barkley
- 9 9 ML 4-1 Queen of Chill F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox
Churchill Downs Selections 8-9-4-3 Star Rating
#8 Two Minute Drill-finished 4th in her debut then opened up a three length lead only to get nailed in the final strides and missed by a nose last out. She will show her speed again today, cuts back in distance and should prove tough.
#9 Queen of Chill-first timer from the Cox barn is working well for her debut and is the one to beat.
#4 Justifying-showed speed in her debut last out before stopping. She shows four good works since and Asmussen is hitting at 22% with his maidens in their second start.
#3 Stellar Lily-long shot play is working well for her debut and could run into the payoffs at a big price.
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 8
Post: 4:22 PM ET Dirt
1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up | ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING: $80,000 | Purse: $134,000 Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
- 1 1 ML 6-1 Uninvited Guest J. Rocco, Jr. 118 Lbs S. Margolis L
- 2 2 ML 3-1 Scarlet Fusion T. Gaffalione 122 Lbs J. Sharp L
- 3 3 ML 2-1 Alejandro B. Hernandez, Jr. 122 Lbs S. Asmussen L
- 4 4 ML 5-2 Decision Maker F. Geroux 122 Lbs T. Van Berg L
- 5 5 ML 8-1 Search Engine E. Morales 118 Lbs T. Amoss L
- 6 6 ML 12-1 Common Bond R. Bejarano 122 Lbs E. Reed L
- 7 7 ML 12-1 American Hero J. Talamo 118 Lbs B. Flint L
Churchill Downs Selections 5-3-2-4 Star Rating long shot play
#5 Search Engine-has been at the top of his game all year with 2 wins, a second and a third from his 5 starts. He has the speed to be close from the start, shows a bullet work over the track here and will be a good price.
#3 Alejandro-has been in the money in 5 of 7 here and will come running late.
#2 Scarlet Fusion-missed by only 2 lengths last out over this track and should be in the money again today.
#4 Decision Maker-came off a two month layoff last out and missed by just a neck on the turf at KD. He will come running late and looks for another in the money finish.
|
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Race 9
Post: 4:55 PM ET Dirt
7 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds | MAIDEN CLAIMING : $150,000 | Purse: $63,000 Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Super Hi-5
- 1 1 ML 10-1 Boudin C. Lanerie 119 Lbs D. Romans $150,000
- 2 2 ML 8-1 King Me F. Peterson 119 Lbs W. Catalano $150,000
- 3 3 ML 4-1 How Did He Do That R. Santana, Jr. 119 Lbs S. Asmussen $150,000
- 4 4 ML 8-1 Don’t Let Go G. Saez 119 Lbs M. Lovell $150,000
- 5 5 ML 5-1 Fight Fiercely R. Bejarano 119 Lbs E. Kenneally $150,000
- 6 6 ML 12-1 Arrogant Rider M. Garcia 119 Lbs W. Morey $150,000
- 7 7 ML 8-1 Yacht Rock (IRE) J. Talamo 119 Lbs N. Casse $150,000
- 8 8 ML 3-1 Day Trade F. Geroux 119 Lbs B. Cox $150,000
- 9 9 ML 10-1 Bolt Above T. Gaffalione 119 Lbs M. Casse $150,000
- 10 10 ML 10-1 Mamba Forever B. Hernandez, Jr. 119 Lbs K. McPeek $150,000
Churchill Downs Selections 3-5-8-9 Star Rating
#3 How Did He Do That-did not show much in his debut then came off a 14 month layoff and missed by only 4 at Ellis last out. He needed that one, shows two works since and will show speed.
#5 Fight Fiercely-ran well in his first two then stretched out to a mile and missed by 10. He cuts back in distance and that will help his chances.
#8 Day Trade-first timer from the Cox barn who is hitting at 21% with his maidens making their debut for a tag.
#9 Bolt Above-ran evenly in his debut last out. He drops in class, needed his debut and will improve.
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||